# The long view - 科目：雅思阅读真题（Part 3） - 考频：中频 - 最近考试：2026.1.31 - 题目数：12 - 来源页：https://www.yaquan.site/paper/5d1de6a2-fcb6-41b7-9fe2-ca578bdf8cf5（在线机考练习与音频请访问该页面） - 数据更新：2026-10-29 ## 题目原文 Climate change, moon bases, cybercrime: we all know the predictions, but how are they made? One expert explains the science of futurology A The business of predicting the future has a long history. Several millennia ago in ancient Greece, people would consult Apollo, the god of prophecy, to learn if fortune favoured their chosen course of action. The tradition has changed considerably since then. Today, futurology is a science that drives a thriving business - its three main consumers being the military, big business and national governments. Modern futurists do not predict that a certain event will occur at a particular time. Instead they look at what is happening now to see what this may lead to further down the line. Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition. B The oil company Shell has been one of the major producers of future studies. It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased. Philip Watts from Shell says, 'This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world.' C The short-term attitudes and bureaucracy of many governments can be frustrating to futurists, but this mutual wariness is slowly changing. The Scottish Parliament recently hosted a conference of 150 futurists from across the globe. The parliament is setting up a forum to look at where Scotland is heading in the next 20 years. Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia. It’s a first for the United Kingdom, although not for Europe - this strategy has already been put into practice in Finland. D Eamonn Kelly, head of the San Francisco-based Global Business Network futurist group, was one of those who attended the conference. According to Kelly, 'There are many different tools a futurist can employ but essentially there are three main ingredients. First, there is the “science”, which can encompass everything from environmental studies to psychology. Then, there is the “craft”, which may include interviews and the creation of maps of cause and effect. Finally, there is the “art”, the intuitive ability to meld all this into a coherent whole. E Dr James Canton is founder of the San Francisco-based Institute for Global Futures and has been an adviser to leading US companies. Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia and has an urge to change things for the better. 'A futurist is an alchemist who mixes the qualitative,' he says. 'He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds gathering primary evidence about what motivates people. Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad.' F New Zealand futurist Robin Gunston says, 'I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist. A certain amount of this is to do with how your brain is hard-wired and we know this is difficult to change. Futurology requires extensive life experience and a broad education to test theories against. Much of modern teenage culture is about me, what I want and what the world owes me - that does not make it easy to see different kinds of futures and pose the hard questions about how we will get there.' G Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. 'Large corporations beholden to shareholders and governments burdened by bureaucracy are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective. Sony, for example, is very forward looking,' Canton says. 'There will be sunset and sunrise nations and corporations, in terms of prosperity in the 21st century. The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed.' H According to Alan Beckley, a former West Mercia chief inspector and past president of the Police Futurists International (PFI), getting public bodies in the UK future-proofed could be a long process. 'People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies,' he says. 'They are more likely to follow their political masters than go to them and say, “We have done this scenario, and this is what we should do”.' However, as the Scottish Parliament has shown, there are a few examples of government exercises. Also, in 2003 Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) published for the first time its strategic thinking for the next decade. This document was drawn up with the help of in-house and outside futurists. FCO minister Bill Rammell says, 'We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics. But the period chosen for the strategy was deliberately a decade. Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that.' I American futurist Steve Brant stresses the importance of remembering that the road ahead has yet to be chosen. 'People can create the future they want using various points of leverage,' he says. 'We have much more influence over what the future will be like than many of us realise.' Futurists used to be like firefighters - they tried to work out what to do if things went wrong. Now, the aim of this profession is to imagine the best possible future for society and start creating it today. ## 题目与答案 ### 27. Flexible organisations are in a better position to make use of futurology. Flexible organisations are in a better position to make use of futurology. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Dr James Canton 原文定位：Those best able to respond to futurists are the most agile. Large corporations;are often simply too slow. Asian companies tend to be better prepared because they take a longer perspective 同义替换：「Flexible organisations」↔「the most agile」；「make use of futurology」↔「respond to futurists」 ### 28. Predictions about any period beyond the next ten years cannot be trusted. Predictions about any period beyond the next ten years cannot be trusted. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Bill Rammell 原文定位：Even assumptions about technology get very shaky beyond that 同义替换：「cannot be trusted」↔「very shaky」 ### 29. Only certain people are suited to becoming futurists. Only certain people are suited to becoming futurists. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Robin Gunston 原文定位：I don’t believe you can train yourself to become a futurist. A certain amount of this is to do with how your brain is hard-wired and we know this is difficult to change 同义替换：「Only certain people are suited」↔「cannot be trained, brain is hard-wired」 ### 30. Future studies are designed to inform current commercial decisions. Future studies are designed to inform current commercial decisions. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Philip Watts 原文定位：This is not an exercise in prophecy. Rather it is designed to challenge our thinking so that we can make better choices in today’s business world 同义替换：「inform current commercial decisions」↔「make better choices in today’s business world」 ### 31. Futurology involves a broad exchange of information but is not influenced by every new idea. Futurology involves a broad exchange of information but is not influenced by every new idea. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Dr James Canton 原文定位：Futurists are constantly discussing ideas with their peers, but they do not simply surf the net picking up on the latest fad 同义替换：「broad exchange of information」↔「discussing ideas with their peers」；「every new idea」↔「picking up on the latest fad」 ### 32. People are not aware of the extent to which they can determine the future. People are not aware of the extent to which they can determine the future. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Steve Brant 原文定位：We have much more influence over what the future will be like than many of us realise 同义替换：「not aware」↔「do not realise」；「determine the future」↔「have influence over what the future will be like」 ### 33. A lack of confidence in futurology affects how widely it is used. A lack of confidence in futurology affects how widely it is used. - Philip Watts - Dr James Canton - Robin Gunston - Alan Beckley - Bill Rammell - Steve Brant **答案**：Alan Beckley 原文定位：People are concerned about the methodology and the reliability of future studies 同义替换：「lack of confidence」↔「concerned about reliability」 ### 34. 34 A report by Shell considered the impact of various kinds of _____ on future lifestyles. 34 A report by Shell considered the impact of various kinds of _____ on future lifestyles. **答案**：energy 原文定位：It recently published a comprehensive study looking at how people may live in 2020 and 2050, given the type of energy which is purchased 同义替换：「A report by Shell」↔「a comprehensive study」；「considered the impact of」↔「looking at」；「various kinds of」↔「the type of」；「future lifestyles」↔「how people may live」 ### 35. 35 The Scottish parliament has decided to use futurists to advise on _____ from Asian and other European countries. 35 The Scottish parliament has decided to use futurists to advise on _____ from Asian and other European countries. **答案**：economic competition 原文定位：Among the issues are demographics and economic competition within Europe and with Asia 同义替换：「advise on」↔「looking at the issues」；「from Asian and other European countries」↔「within Europe and with Asia」 ### 36. 36 Dr James Canton is similar to other futurists in that he began his career in the _____ . 36 Dr James Canton is similar to other futurists in that he began his career in the _____ . **答案**：private sector 原文定位：Like many futurists he started in the private sector but is also comfortable in academia 同义替换：「similar to」↔「Like」；「began」↔「started」 ### 37. 37 Britain’s FCO sometimes studies developments in areas like _____ beyond 10 years. 37 Britain’s FCO sometimes studies developments in areas like _____ beyond 10 years. **答案**：demographics 原文定位：We do occasionally look further ahead than the next ten years on issues such as demographics 同义替换：「studies developments」↔「look further ahead」；「areas like」↔「issues such as」；「beyond 10 years」↔「further ahead than the next ten years」 ### 38-40. 38-40 Which THREE of the following statements are true according to the passage? 38-40 Which THREE of the following statements are true according to the passage? - Present-day futurology can focus on achieving a particular outcome. - Futurists recognise that most governments have already made long-term plans. - The world’s first futurology conference was hosted by Finland. - Futurists need to talk to people from various areas of expertise. - Futurists should carry out internet research to keep up with popular trends. - Aspects of modern culture prepare people well for a career in futurology. **答案**：Present-day futurology can focus on achieving a particular outcome.,Futurists need to talk to people from various areas of expertise.,Conducting future studies can affect whether a company continues to be successful. 原文定位：Alternatively, they start with a desired result and work out how people and organisations can be manoeuvred into realising that ambition;He needs intuition and has to work with people from a range of academic backgrounds gathering primary evidence about what motivates people;The winners will be those corporations and governments which conduct future studies and take steps to become future-proofed 同义替换：「present-day」↔「modern」；「focus on achieving a particular outcome」↔「start with a desired result」；「talk to people from various areas of expertise」↔「work with people from a range of academic backgrounds」；「affects whether a company continues to be successful」↔「determine winners」 --- 以上内容由鸭圈雅思真题库（www.yaquan.site）提供，收录近期雅思考试真题回忆，支持在线机考模式免费练习。